Do Slot Machines Pay Better On Certain Days

Slot machines don't become due for a win when they haven't paid out in a long while, and they also don't become hot and start paying out more. Every spin is like a single coin toss or a single roll of the dice—the outcome is independent of all the outcomes prior to it. The location of the slot machine in the casino matters. These machines do not pay out in cash. Instead, they print out a receipt which must be exchanged for cash. There are also some Indian casinos that offer Class II gambling which consist of electronic gaming machines which look like slot machines, but are actually games of bingo and the spinning video reels are for 'entertainment purposes only.' How Do You Win a Progressive Jackpot? No strategy or system can increase your chances of winning a progressive jackpot on a slot machine game. The odds of winning are similar to the odds of winning the lottery, although you get many more chances of winning per hour with a slot machine game than you would get playing a lottery game. In the UK, manufacturers claim most machines are set at 95 per cent but many pay out less - as low as 70 per cent in certain pubs and at motorway service stations, where the odds are worst of all; the transient clientele will not be around long enough to realise what an ungenerous fellow their fruit machine is.

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Reprinted from the American Casino Guide - 1999 edition

By Steve Bourie

Today, the average U.S. casino makes about 65% of its profits off its slot machines. Actually, that number representsall different kinds of a casino's machines including video poker, video keno, video blackjack, and all other varietiesof electronic games. It didn't use to be that way. In fact, it used to be just the opposite! Table games were the big revenue producers for the casinos and it was usually the men who playedthose games while their wives were kept busy at the slot machines.

Back in the 40s and early 50s, the old mechanical slots were full of gears and springs and were actually powered by pulling the handle which started the reels spinning. One of the problems withthese machines was that they were limited in the size of the jackpots they could offer because they could only accept one coin, plus the hoppers, still relying on those springs and gears, werelimited in the number of coins they could payout.

In the 60s the next generation of slots was introduced: the electromechanical. These machines still had a handle on the outside, but this time when you pulled it you activated an electricswitch which started a motor to spin the reels. These machines increased the popularity of slots because they allowed multiple coin play and they also had electrically-powered hoppers thatcould pay out much larger jackpots. In the 80s computer-controlled slots were introduced.

These new machines revolutionized the industry because everything was now controlled by a computer chip. These electronic marvels could offer progressive jackpots that were linked amongdifferent machines and it wasn't long before this new computer technology led to the introduction of a new game called video poker.

Today, the technology is so advanced that it allows slot machines that are hundreds of miles apart to be linked together by computer and offer jackpots that start at $10 million (SuperMegabucks), or video poker to be played from five different decks at the same time (Five Deck Frenzy).

Although the technology constantly changes, one thing remains the same: the person responsible for the operation of the slot department is the slot manager. It is the slot manager whodetermines how the slot department will be laid out and how much the machines will be set to pay back.

As a slot player, you've probably had a few questions about how a slot department works: How do they decide where to put those slot machines out on the casino floor? Is winning purely luck? Aresome machines really set to pay back more than others? And, if so, where do they put those better-paying machines? Well, the person with the answer to those questions would be the slot managerand I found two who were gracious enough to sit down for an interview in early 1998 to answer some questions about how their departments work and what goes into some of their businessdecisions.

The first stop was at the office of Rich Marino, Director of Slot Operations, at Luxor, the giant pyramid-shaped casino-resort in Las Vegas. Luxor is owned by Circus Circus, one of the largestgaming companies in the world, and the hotel itself, with more than 4,400 rooms, is the world's third-largest hotel.

Rich began his career working downtown at the Union Plaza in 1976 in the coin room pulling the buckets under the machines. He eventually became the shift manager and a few years laterhe moved to the Gold Strike which later merged with Circus Circus. After a one-year stint at the Elgin Riverboat in Illinois, Rich returned to Las Vegas to help open the Luxor casino and he'sbeen there ever since.

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Rich has more than 200 employees working for him in his slot department, including change people, floor people, money runners, booth cashiers; supervisors, assistant shift managers, andmanagers.

Bourie: What are the job functions of the various people in your department?

Marino: A change person's main function is to provide our casino guests with change service without having to leave the machine. They also pay and verify jackpots on themachines. A booth cashier's function is to provide change and coin redemption service. Floor persons do minor repairs, fill empty machines, and verify jackpots. Supervisors verify the fillingof machines and the payment of jackpots up to certain amounts. Assistant Shift Managers and Shift Managers verify larger jackpots. ..and manage all operations on their particular shift.

Bourie: What goes into your decisions when you lay out the slot floor and are deciding where to put slot machines?

Marino: Traffic flow is the most important consideration when laying out a slot floor. Placing lower denomination machines in high traffic flow areas to insure that theproperty always looks busy. Also, I place the more popular machines in slower areas to draw people to those locations. I look for what types of machines people are playing and I also runreports continually: which locations are doing best, my top 10 machines, my types of machines, etc.

Bourie: What is the most popular machine?

Marino: Wheel of Fortune is the most popular right now. IGT (International Game Technology) took its reel-spinning slot machine and added a second-feature spinning wheel on topthat offers a bonus to players. They combined that with the popularity of the Wheel of Fortune game show and they now have the most successful machine on the market.

Actually, in the past 10 years, the slot industry has been kind of boring: just pull the handle and let the reels spin. Now, we have all these second-feature-type games with the WilliamsGames and the Vision IGT (International Game Technology) series. It makes it more exciting. It's not a local type of excitement, but a tourist type of excitement. Tourists like them a lot morethan the locals like them.

Bourie: I went to the gaming show recently and some of those newer slots seemed a little complicated.

Marino: In some cases, I have to actually sit down and play those games before I can figure them out. Initially, I thought that the customers would reject them, but it'snot happening. They are really taking to them. I believe a lot of the customers don't even know which combinations they're winning on. All they know is that they're having a good time andaccumulating a lot of credits.

Bourie: They actually don't know the winning combinations?

Marino: Yes, but they know they're having fun. They know there's money coming and they're winning credits and they're having a good time. That's the name of the game. Thereality is that the casino has the edge. You know that and I know that and everybody knows that, but what you've got to do is let people have as much fun as they can so that even if they don'twin, they're still having fun. It's an entertainment experience. If you're sitting there and take out a $20 bill, and you're playing and that $20 bill is gone and you don't hit anything, you'vegot a negative experience, you know what I mean?

Bourie: How about your decisions concerning the physical layout and where you want to place the machines?

Marino: What I try to do initially is create excitement by the front entrance of the casino so when a customer walks in they see people playing and having fun. I put popularnickel games upfront because it seems the nickel games always fill up first. (Pulls out the floor plan of the casino and points to various locations). As you can see I've located a couple ofnickel banks upfront and some Wheel of Fortune games next to them.

I try to draw the customers in and create a good flow through the casino. This is the entrance (pointing to a different area of the layout) from the Excalibur when you come over from the movingwalkway that links the two properties. Here, I try to create the same scenario by putting Wheel of Fortunes on this wall and the Williams games adjacent to them. And, as I said, I try to createexcitement in each area and I do that with the types of machines or denominations. The nickel games kind of shield the front areas and we also put them in the back areas because customers aregoing to find them there. They're going to find them no matter where you put them because they like playing nickel machines.

Bourie: I'd like to address some common beliefs that players have about slot machines and here's the first one: 'The casino can flip a switch to make the machines hold more.'Or, 'the machines are set tighter on the weekends.' I've actually heard people say 'there's a big convention coming this week and they're going to reset all the slots to make themtighter.' Any truth to those kinds of thoughts?

Marino: There is no magic switch. The only time we change a machine is when we convert it to a newer or more popular model. And, of course, when you get a new model, then youwould change the e-prom (the computer chip that controls the payback percentage) to that new model. The manufacturer initially sets all the percentages for the machines when ordered. Idetermine the hold percentages I want by the denomination of the machine. The hold percentage averages for the Las Vegas Strip are 11% for nickels, 6.5% for Quarters, 4.5% for dollars, and 3.5%for five dollars and above.

Also, gaming-wise to do that, it's not just going in and changing a chip. You have to go in and you actually have to take all of the money out of the machine. It's got to be returned to thecashier's cage, that money has to be counted and you have to assign a new number to that machine because that's a new machine once you change the e-prom. So, gaming regulations require you tochange the statistics on the whole new machine. It's a whole day process to do that. It's not just to go in and change the chip and leave and say 'okay, I've tightened them up for the weekend.'

Bourie: Another thing many players believe is that 'the best-paying machines are on the aisles.'

Marino: Not true. The best machines are on the aisle? I'll tell you what, that's a perception people have because most of them like to play machines on the aisle. They'll walkup and play the machines in the end because they don't want to play with somebody next to them. If you've got a guy playing here, here, and here, you're not going to go right next to thatguy. You're going to go to the end so there's nobody next to you. That's why we've gone to these round configurations. People don't like sitting next to each other. So, we're going moreand more to the round ones because people really like that a lot and these games do a lot better than the normal straight rows of slot machines. That's why I try to break them up with roundsdown the middle and slants.

But as far as the tighter and the looser machines, I set them up by model types. I mean, if I have a bank of quarter machines, I'll have a Double Diamond; a Red, White, and Blue; and mypercentages on those quarter machines are all the same. So, it doesn't matter which machine I put where. Poker strategy guide.

Bourie: Then you wouldn't have a situation where a high-paying machine would be sitting next to a low-paying machine?

Marino: No. If the machines were the same denomination on a particular bank the hold percentages would be virtually the same. In my dollar machines I order everything atbetween 4% and 5%. So, you're talking the difference between one percentage point and that's only because certain models are only available at certain percentages. I mean, I would never put an8% dollar machine next to one at 4%. I don't do that here. Some places might do that, I don't know. I try to give everybody an equal shot no matter what.

Bourie: So, there would be very little difference between a high machine and a low machine?

Marino: If I was going to set it up that way I would put the loosest machine in the middle as opposed to the end because they get the most play. That's why it appears tobe looser to the customer because it gets more play and more action and more people are playing it and it cycles more. And, it gets into those better cycles more often.

Bourie: Which brings us to the next question, 'Do machines get ‘hot' and payout more frequently?'

Marino: Sure they get hot, they also get cold. Through the cycle of a machine, it's a percentage to pay out a certain amount over a period of time-based on the number ofhandles pulls the machine receives. However, the hot and cold cycles are random and indeterminable.

Bourie: When you order a slot machine do you have to tell the manufacturer what you want it to pay?

Marino: Yes.

Bourie: And, each manufacturer tells you the pre-approved percentages you can choose from?

Marino: That's correct. (goes to the shelf, pulls down a book and opens it to a page). This book contains all the available hold percentages for these particular models and thedenomination of a machine is what determines the hold percentage I would order for it.

This is what I order quarter machines at - 92.4% - which would be right around 7.5% holding for the house. If it's dollars, I order this one (around 95%) and for twenty-fives (around 97%) orhundreds (around 98%), it goes up, like that. If it's nickels, you start down here (around 89%). That's the way it works.

Now, over a period of time, this quarter machine is going to pay back 92.42% and it's going to hold around 7.5% for the house. And when I say over a period of time, that means over 10 millionhandle pulls.

Bourie: 10 million is the life cycle? On every machine?

Marino: 10 million is the number of handle pulls the manufacturer has determined it would take a particular machine to achieve that 7.5% hold calculation. Getting to thatnumber though may take a year. That means in January, that machine might be hot, or today it may be hot. So, I may be holding..it's a volatility index they call it..for the first two monthsof the cycle when that machine goes out on the floor, I may be in the negative. I may be paying out 400% or 500% on that game. But, the next month it may be tighter and at the end of thatcycle, it's going to hold at 8%.

Let me show you something else here. I just put these games on the floor last week. These are the new vision games from IGT (International Game Technology). These have been on the floorfor approximately 14 days. What I do is an analysis: the coin in, jackpots filled, and it tells me my win per day, per unit, and my payout percentage. Now, the first week, which is hardlyanything to analyze, but this machine is doing its handle per day. This is what it's handling, this is what it's winning, this is what it's holding: 5.72%. It actually should be at 4.92%.So, it's over holding by .80%. It's holding too much.

Bourie: So, you always have a variable there?

Marino: Right. There's a variance there. The next game on the row, okay, this one is not holding. It's half of what it should be holding.

Bourie: That's half of what it should be holding, based on what the manufacturer said?

Marino: Right. It should be holding 5.2%, the manufacturer said, and it's only holding 2.75%, but it's only been on the floor for two weeks. When you see a machine notholding..we do a comparison at the end of each month of winners and losers. Then we look at the coin in and we see how long they've been on the floor. Most of the time, I'll look at ayear-to-date number, or a lifetime number on the machine to see where they are actually at.

Bourie: Will this tell you how many actual pulls were made on that machine?

Marino: Sure. You just divide, or you go to the machine itself and you could see exactly how many handle pulls. Normally, you just divide it by the number of coins in and youcould tell the handle pulls. That's basically what we do, but we don't tighten them up, or loosen them up. Once they're out there, they're out there. The only time we do conversions is when wesee a model not getting enough play. Then we say it's not popular and we try something else.

Bourie: Do you ever have a problem, after a year, where a machine doesn't make money for you?

Marino: No, usually a machine will hold what it is the percentage to hold if it's had enough handle pulls. If they're supposed to hold 5%, they'll hold 5% after they've been onthe floor for a while Usually when they don't make money, they're holding what they are supposed to hold, but it's not enough for the house average. What you would do is take your bottom 20% ofyour machines and convert those to more popular models.

But to go back to what you were asking before, the hot and the cold factor? That's definitely true. The machine can be hot today and colder than anything tomorrow. It will pay out 400% today toyou and tomorrow it might take 400% from somebody else.

Bourie: Okay, but there's no way to tell if it's going to stay hot, is there? It reminds me of when I talk to people about playing craps. They all say 'just find a ‘hot' crapgame.' I say, 'fine, you may find a ‘hot' crap game, but all you know is what happened in the past. You don't know what's going to happen in the future.'

Marino: Sure, It's the same as a 'hot' slot machine, you just don't know what the next pull will bring.

Bourie: Right. But people say, 'well if it's a ‘hot' machine, it's going to keep paying out.' People are under the assumption that it's going to keep paying out, and I tellthem 'no, it's purely luck.'

Marino: You're right. They don't pay out forever. All it is, is luck. Being in the right place at the right time.

Bourie: How about this one: 'don't play a machine that just hit a jackpot?'

Marino: Well, it doesn't matter.

Bourie: And that's because the odds remain constant on every pull of the handle?

Marino: That's right.

Bourie: One last question. Do you have any suggestions for players?

Marino: Suggestions for players? The only suggestion I have is to just play the machine that you enjoy the most and that you have a good time at. I mean..I play a little bit.I go out with my wife and she'll play video poker machines. I'll play video poker with her, but I just play the machines that I enjoy playing. I'll play machines that I see paying back the bestto the customer (by looking at the paytable). Those are the ones I'll look for, and locals do that. If you're a local customer, that's what you look for: the good video poker machines. Justlike Jeff (referring to Jeff Compton, author of the Las Vegas Advisor Guide to Slot Clubs) will tell you. He's an expert at video poker machines.

Rich's answers were surprisingly candid and they certainly laid to rest some long-standing beliefs among slot players as to how slots are set up in a casino. For years slot players have alwaysbelieved that some machines were set much higher than others within a casino. Rich dispelled this myth by pointing out that all of his machines within a particular denomination were set to payback approximately the same amount. He pointed out that not all manufacturers offer the exact same percentages in their computer chips so there could be a difference of as high as 1% but youreally won't find a situation where the one-quarter machine that's set to return 92% would be sitting next to another quarter machine set to return 82%.

If you look at the numbers from the Nevada Gaming Control Board regarding the returns on slot machines that are shown in this book it certainly corroborates what Rich was saying. After all, ifthe average $1 machine returns 95% how much of a difference could there be between the high and the low? Do you think half of the $1 machines are set at 99% and the other half are set at 91% inorder to get that 95% average? Sorry, but it just doesn't work that way. Yes, there are differences among machines but, once again, the amount is minimal and it probably amounts to no more than1%.

And what about the common belief that machines at the end of an aisle are set to return the most? Well, Rich killed that idea too. He explained that it just seems that end machines pay out moreoften simply because they've played more often.

This is somewhat akin to the 'bad player' theory in blackjack. According to this theory, if there's a bad player at the blackjack table who constantly makes poor decisions it will somehowaffect the order of the cards and cause the good players (who make correct playing decisions) to lose more often. The truth is that the bad player really has no effect on the game becausesometimes his decisions will hurt you and sometimes his decisions will help you. The problem is that you only tend to remember the situations where you lost because of his poor play and forgetthe times that you won because of his boneheaded moves.

This same theory can apply to slot machines at the end of an aisle. When you're playing in a casino, or just walking through, you'll only remember the times you saw people winning at machines,not losing. Since the end-of-the-aisle machines get more play, they will, of course, have more winners and people will tend to remember them as the better paying machines.

As far as constantly changing the payback percentages on the chips to make machines 'looser' or 'tighter' Rich pointed out that it's not quite that simple and that changes are rarely madebecause of all the extra work that's involved.

In the July 1998 issue of Las Vegas Advisor this same subject was covered in an interview with three different Las Vegas casino slot managers and two officials from the Nevada GamingControl Board. The Advisor writer discovered that there actually are some slots where the percentages can be changed by flipping a switch, but it only applies to machines that are connectedtogether in a 'bank' where they all share the same centralized chip. The vast majority of the machines in a casino, however, are not capable of this function as they each have their owninternal chip.

The Advisor story also went on to point out that Nevada law requires casinos to do paperwork whenever a chip is changed and it must be completed within 24 hours. Also, the casino must completeadditional accounting paperwork for filing with the state. Evidently, the process is so time-consuming the story concluded that ' no one we talked to even had a secondhand story of aNevada casino that frequently changes chips.'

You're welcome! In an 8/5 game, the jackpot would have to reach 37,704 coins to reach 100%, assuming you have to play 20 coins to win it. Assuming only 8 coins, the meter would have to reach 15,082 coins. On a 7/5 machine and 20 coins required the meter would have to reach, 46,956 coins. These figures assume you are playing the proper strategy for these pay tables with a per coin payoff for a royal flush of 800. As the jackpot grows some strategy adjustments are called for to more aggressively try for the royal. These adjustments were not calculated in this answer. It doesn't make any difference what the coinage is.

Each frame in these video slots is weighted equally. Any given line is equally likely to produce any given combination. Thus, the return is the same regardless of the number of coins played.

Thanks for the kind words. I have barely heard of teams of slot players doing this. However, this is very common with progressive video poker players. There are teams of these professional players who routinely check the meters and when they find one high enough they call their teammates in an attempt to monopolize the machines until somebody hits the jackpot.
The problem with slots is that it is not clear to the player what the odds are of hitting the jackpot so it is not obvious what the jackpot size has to reach for the machine to become profitable. Plus, it probably rarely happens that a meter gets high enough to overcome the house edge.

If the odds against something are 4 to 1 then there are 4 chances it won't happen and one chance that it will. So, in this example, the probability would be 1/5. It doesn't matter what the probability is, if the events are independent then the past does not matter.

None of these factors matter. Walk away when you're not having fun any longer.

For variable-state slots, you have to know what the positive point is for that model of machine. For example, on the Piggy Bankin' slot machine, I think it becomes positive when there are about 40 credits in the bank. At that point the player is supposed to play one coin at a time until the bank is hit. The book Robbing the One-Armed Bandits by Charles Lund (1999) covers specific positive points for various machines, however many of the machines covered in that book are now hard to find.
As for how to determine when a progressive jackpot is unusually high, you'll either have to observe it over a long period of time or find someone who has done the same. For example, SlotCharts.com keeps data on progressive slots at online casinos. But even when a progressive slot is unusually high, it's impossible to know at what point it becomes high enough to be a positive-expectation game without knowing how the probabilities on the machine are programmed. In my section Deconstructing Megabucks I attempt to figure out when the jackpot is large enough to have a player advantage.
Update: Since this question was published, SlotCharts.com is blocked to U.S. traffic.

Thanks. This is a good question and I wish I had a firm answer. The exact answer depends on the theoretical return of both machines, and nobody ever reveals this information. Yes, you do get a better return in general on dollar machines than quarters, but you are giving up the max-coin bonus. I think the house edge will do down about 2% making the jump from quarters to dollars. However, without reel weightings, I can't tell you the cost of not playing max coins. My general advice is to find a slot machine without a max-coin incentive and then bet one coin at a time.

You're right, the mathematical answer is that it doesn't matter. I would choose the machine either randomly or based on environmental factors. My highest priority is that if there were any smokers in the vicinity I would sit as far from them as possible. Otherwise I would distance myself from any loud noises, including other players. If the machines were crowded I would pick an aisle machine, giving me a little more elbow room and one less neighbor.

I believe that most online slots have a fixed return, regardless of the coinage. This is unlike slots in real casinos, which return more the greater the coinage. What you should do depends on your priorities. If you want playing longevity then you should play as little as possible per spin. If you want hope for a big win then you should play as much as possible per spin. However the house edge is likely the same either way.

No. If your goal is a small win then you should be playing low volatility, high hit frequency games. I can't suggest any particular games but look for ones with comparatively small jackpots. These will also help you to play longer.

I've been asked about these North Carolina slot machines so many times I'm tempted to fly there just to see them for myself. Yes, if they did give the probability of each symbol for each reel then an optimal strategy and a return could be fairly easily calculated. However I have never actually seen such a table and have never worked out the odds.

The odds are exactly the same on a one line, 10 line, and n-line video poker machine. When you get a trash hand in 100-play you can expect to get about 36% of your original bet back. In 10-play it is still 36% but there is more volatility. In 1 play it is still 36% but you can get lucky and get a high paying hand on the draw. In other words you are more likely to hit it big on the draw in single play, but at the expense of lots more non-paying hands.

For purposes of determining the game outcome the slot machine does not consider how many lines you bet or how much per line. The only thing that matters is the exact nanosecond you pressed the spin button. Random numbers drawn at exactly that time will determine the outcome, since the machine is picking numbers even when you're not playing.

1st place: $1,000,000
2nd place: $150,000
3rd-6th place: $25,000
7th-8th place: $20,000
9th-50th place: $5,000

Do Slot Machines Pay Better On Certain Days Ago

The cost is $25,000, and the tournament is limited to 50 players. It is easy to see the expected win is $30,000. However, it is a huge long-shot. What would be the required bankroll for entry to be a sound bet under the Kelly Criterion?

The Kelly Approximation is the advantage divided by the variance. The possible outcomes are a win of 39, 5, 0, -0.2, and -0.8 times the bet amount. The advantage is (1/50)×39 + (1/50)×5 + (4/50)×0 + (2/50)× -0.2 + (42/50)×-0.8 = 0.2.

The variance is Expected(win²) - (Expected(win))² = (1/50)×39² + (1/50)×5² + (4/50)×0² + (2/50)× -0.2² + (42/50)×-0.8² − 0.2² = 31.4192

So, the approximate optimal Kelly bet is 0.2/31.492 = 0.0063655 times the bankroll. For a full entry of $25,000, the required bankroll would have to be 25,000/0.0063655 = $3,927,400.

However, for large bets like this, I think it is worth the time to find the exact optimal Kelly bet. Next, find the bet size b, which maximizes the expected log of the bankroll after the tournament, as follows.

Log of bankroll after tournament = (1/50)*log(1+39×b) + (1/50)*log(1+5×b) + (4/50)*log(1) + (2/50)*log(1-0.2×b) + (42/50)*log(1-0.8×b)

As a slot player, you've probably had a few questions about how a slot department works: How do they decide where to put those slot machines out on the casino floor? Is winning purely luck? Aresome machines really set to pay back more than others? And, if so, where do they put those better-paying machines? Well, the person with the answer to those questions would be the slot managerand I found two who were gracious enough to sit down for an interview in early 1998 to answer some questions about how their departments work and what goes into some of their businessdecisions.

The first stop was at the office of Rich Marino, Director of Slot Operations, at Luxor, the giant pyramid-shaped casino-resort in Las Vegas. Luxor is owned by Circus Circus, one of the largestgaming companies in the world, and the hotel itself, with more than 4,400 rooms, is the world's third-largest hotel.

Rich began his career working downtown at the Union Plaza in 1976 in the coin room pulling the buckets under the machines. He eventually became the shift manager and a few years laterhe moved to the Gold Strike which later merged with Circus Circus. After a one-year stint at the Elgin Riverboat in Illinois, Rich returned to Las Vegas to help open the Luxor casino and he'sbeen there ever since.

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Rich has more than 200 employees working for him in his slot department, including change people, floor people, money runners, booth cashiers; supervisors, assistant shift managers, andmanagers.

Bourie: What are the job functions of the various people in your department?

Marino: A change person's main function is to provide our casino guests with change service without having to leave the machine. They also pay and verify jackpots on themachines. A booth cashier's function is to provide change and coin redemption service. Floor persons do minor repairs, fill empty machines, and verify jackpots. Supervisors verify the fillingof machines and the payment of jackpots up to certain amounts. Assistant Shift Managers and Shift Managers verify larger jackpots. ..and manage all operations on their particular shift.

Bourie: What goes into your decisions when you lay out the slot floor and are deciding where to put slot machines?

Marino: Traffic flow is the most important consideration when laying out a slot floor. Placing lower denomination machines in high traffic flow areas to insure that theproperty always looks busy. Also, I place the more popular machines in slower areas to draw people to those locations. I look for what types of machines people are playing and I also runreports continually: which locations are doing best, my top 10 machines, my types of machines, etc.

Bourie: What is the most popular machine?

Marino: Wheel of Fortune is the most popular right now. IGT (International Game Technology) took its reel-spinning slot machine and added a second-feature spinning wheel on topthat offers a bonus to players. They combined that with the popularity of the Wheel of Fortune game show and they now have the most successful machine on the market.

Actually, in the past 10 years, the slot industry has been kind of boring: just pull the handle and let the reels spin. Now, we have all these second-feature-type games with the WilliamsGames and the Vision IGT (International Game Technology) series. It makes it more exciting. It's not a local type of excitement, but a tourist type of excitement. Tourists like them a lot morethan the locals like them.

Bourie: I went to the gaming show recently and some of those newer slots seemed a little complicated.

Marino: In some cases, I have to actually sit down and play those games before I can figure them out. Initially, I thought that the customers would reject them, but it'snot happening. They are really taking to them. I believe a lot of the customers don't even know which combinations they're winning on. All they know is that they're having a good time andaccumulating a lot of credits.

Bourie: They actually don't know the winning combinations?

Marino: Yes, but they know they're having fun. They know there's money coming and they're winning credits and they're having a good time. That's the name of the game. Thereality is that the casino has the edge. You know that and I know that and everybody knows that, but what you've got to do is let people have as much fun as they can so that even if they don'twin, they're still having fun. It's an entertainment experience. If you're sitting there and take out a $20 bill, and you're playing and that $20 bill is gone and you don't hit anything, you'vegot a negative experience, you know what I mean?

Bourie: How about your decisions concerning the physical layout and where you want to place the machines?

Marino: What I try to do initially is create excitement by the front entrance of the casino so when a customer walks in they see people playing and having fun. I put popularnickel games upfront because it seems the nickel games always fill up first. (Pulls out the floor plan of the casino and points to various locations). As you can see I've located a couple ofnickel banks upfront and some Wheel of Fortune games next to them.

I try to draw the customers in and create a good flow through the casino. This is the entrance (pointing to a different area of the layout) from the Excalibur when you come over from the movingwalkway that links the two properties. Here, I try to create the same scenario by putting Wheel of Fortunes on this wall and the Williams games adjacent to them. And, as I said, I try to createexcitement in each area and I do that with the types of machines or denominations. The nickel games kind of shield the front areas and we also put them in the back areas because customers aregoing to find them there. They're going to find them no matter where you put them because they like playing nickel machines.

Bourie: I'd like to address some common beliefs that players have about slot machines and here's the first one: 'The casino can flip a switch to make the machines hold more.'Or, 'the machines are set tighter on the weekends.' I've actually heard people say 'there's a big convention coming this week and they're going to reset all the slots to make themtighter.' Any truth to those kinds of thoughts?

Marino: There is no magic switch. The only time we change a machine is when we convert it to a newer or more popular model. And, of course, when you get a new model, then youwould change the e-prom (the computer chip that controls the payback percentage) to that new model. The manufacturer initially sets all the percentages for the machines when ordered. Idetermine the hold percentages I want by the denomination of the machine. The hold percentage averages for the Las Vegas Strip are 11% for nickels, 6.5% for Quarters, 4.5% for dollars, and 3.5%for five dollars and above.

Also, gaming-wise to do that, it's not just going in and changing a chip. You have to go in and you actually have to take all of the money out of the machine. It's got to be returned to thecashier's cage, that money has to be counted and you have to assign a new number to that machine because that's a new machine once you change the e-prom. So, gaming regulations require you tochange the statistics on the whole new machine. It's a whole day process to do that. It's not just to go in and change the chip and leave and say 'okay, I've tightened them up for the weekend.'

Bourie: Another thing many players believe is that 'the best-paying machines are on the aisles.'

Marino: Not true. The best machines are on the aisle? I'll tell you what, that's a perception people have because most of them like to play machines on the aisle. They'll walkup and play the machines in the end because they don't want to play with somebody next to them. If you've got a guy playing here, here, and here, you're not going to go right next to thatguy. You're going to go to the end so there's nobody next to you. That's why we've gone to these round configurations. People don't like sitting next to each other. So, we're going moreand more to the round ones because people really like that a lot and these games do a lot better than the normal straight rows of slot machines. That's why I try to break them up with roundsdown the middle and slants.

But as far as the tighter and the looser machines, I set them up by model types. I mean, if I have a bank of quarter machines, I'll have a Double Diamond; a Red, White, and Blue; and mypercentages on those quarter machines are all the same. So, it doesn't matter which machine I put where. Poker strategy guide.

Bourie: Then you wouldn't have a situation where a high-paying machine would be sitting next to a low-paying machine?

Marino: No. If the machines were the same denomination on a particular bank the hold percentages would be virtually the same. In my dollar machines I order everything atbetween 4% and 5%. So, you're talking the difference between one percentage point and that's only because certain models are only available at certain percentages. I mean, I would never put an8% dollar machine next to one at 4%. I don't do that here. Some places might do that, I don't know. I try to give everybody an equal shot no matter what.

Bourie: So, there would be very little difference between a high machine and a low machine?

Marino: If I was going to set it up that way I would put the loosest machine in the middle as opposed to the end because they get the most play. That's why it appears tobe looser to the customer because it gets more play and more action and more people are playing it and it cycles more. And, it gets into those better cycles more often.

Bourie: Which brings us to the next question, 'Do machines get ‘hot' and payout more frequently?'

Marino: Sure they get hot, they also get cold. Through the cycle of a machine, it's a percentage to pay out a certain amount over a period of time-based on the number ofhandles pulls the machine receives. However, the hot and cold cycles are random and indeterminable.

Bourie: When you order a slot machine do you have to tell the manufacturer what you want it to pay?

Marino: Yes.

Bourie: And, each manufacturer tells you the pre-approved percentages you can choose from?

Marino: That's correct. (goes to the shelf, pulls down a book and opens it to a page). This book contains all the available hold percentages for these particular models and thedenomination of a machine is what determines the hold percentage I would order for it.

This is what I order quarter machines at - 92.4% - which would be right around 7.5% holding for the house. If it's dollars, I order this one (around 95%) and for twenty-fives (around 97%) orhundreds (around 98%), it goes up, like that. If it's nickels, you start down here (around 89%). That's the way it works.

Now, over a period of time, this quarter machine is going to pay back 92.42% and it's going to hold around 7.5% for the house. And when I say over a period of time, that means over 10 millionhandle pulls.

Bourie: 10 million is the life cycle? On every machine?

Marino: 10 million is the number of handle pulls the manufacturer has determined it would take a particular machine to achieve that 7.5% hold calculation. Getting to thatnumber though may take a year. That means in January, that machine might be hot, or today it may be hot. So, I may be holding..it's a volatility index they call it..for the first two monthsof the cycle when that machine goes out on the floor, I may be in the negative. I may be paying out 400% or 500% on that game. But, the next month it may be tighter and at the end of thatcycle, it's going to hold at 8%.

Let me show you something else here. I just put these games on the floor last week. These are the new vision games from IGT (International Game Technology). These have been on the floorfor approximately 14 days. What I do is an analysis: the coin in, jackpots filled, and it tells me my win per day, per unit, and my payout percentage. Now, the first week, which is hardlyanything to analyze, but this machine is doing its handle per day. This is what it's handling, this is what it's winning, this is what it's holding: 5.72%. It actually should be at 4.92%.So, it's over holding by .80%. It's holding too much.

Bourie: So, you always have a variable there?

Marino: Right. There's a variance there. The next game on the row, okay, this one is not holding. It's half of what it should be holding.

Bourie: That's half of what it should be holding, based on what the manufacturer said?

Marino: Right. It should be holding 5.2%, the manufacturer said, and it's only holding 2.75%, but it's only been on the floor for two weeks. When you see a machine notholding..we do a comparison at the end of each month of winners and losers. Then we look at the coin in and we see how long they've been on the floor. Most of the time, I'll look at ayear-to-date number, or a lifetime number on the machine to see where they are actually at.

Bourie: Will this tell you how many actual pulls were made on that machine?

Marino: Sure. You just divide, or you go to the machine itself and you could see exactly how many handle pulls. Normally, you just divide it by the number of coins in and youcould tell the handle pulls. That's basically what we do, but we don't tighten them up, or loosen them up. Once they're out there, they're out there. The only time we do conversions is when wesee a model not getting enough play. Then we say it's not popular and we try something else.

Bourie: Do you ever have a problem, after a year, where a machine doesn't make money for you?

Marino: No, usually a machine will hold what it is the percentage to hold if it's had enough handle pulls. If they're supposed to hold 5%, they'll hold 5% after they've been onthe floor for a while Usually when they don't make money, they're holding what they are supposed to hold, but it's not enough for the house average. What you would do is take your bottom 20% ofyour machines and convert those to more popular models.

But to go back to what you were asking before, the hot and the cold factor? That's definitely true. The machine can be hot today and colder than anything tomorrow. It will pay out 400% today toyou and tomorrow it might take 400% from somebody else.

Bourie: Okay, but there's no way to tell if it's going to stay hot, is there? It reminds me of when I talk to people about playing craps. They all say 'just find a ‘hot' crapgame.' I say, 'fine, you may find a ‘hot' crap game, but all you know is what happened in the past. You don't know what's going to happen in the future.'

Marino: Sure, It's the same as a 'hot' slot machine, you just don't know what the next pull will bring.

Bourie: Right. But people say, 'well if it's a ‘hot' machine, it's going to keep paying out.' People are under the assumption that it's going to keep paying out, and I tellthem 'no, it's purely luck.'

Marino: You're right. They don't pay out forever. All it is, is luck. Being in the right place at the right time.

Bourie: How about this one: 'don't play a machine that just hit a jackpot?'

Marino: Well, it doesn't matter.

Bourie: And that's because the odds remain constant on every pull of the handle?

Marino: That's right.

Bourie: One last question. Do you have any suggestions for players?

Marino: Suggestions for players? The only suggestion I have is to just play the machine that you enjoy the most and that you have a good time at. I mean..I play a little bit.I go out with my wife and she'll play video poker machines. I'll play video poker with her, but I just play the machines that I enjoy playing. I'll play machines that I see paying back the bestto the customer (by looking at the paytable). Those are the ones I'll look for, and locals do that. If you're a local customer, that's what you look for: the good video poker machines. Justlike Jeff (referring to Jeff Compton, author of the Las Vegas Advisor Guide to Slot Clubs) will tell you. He's an expert at video poker machines.

Rich's answers were surprisingly candid and they certainly laid to rest some long-standing beliefs among slot players as to how slots are set up in a casino. For years slot players have alwaysbelieved that some machines were set much higher than others within a casino. Rich dispelled this myth by pointing out that all of his machines within a particular denomination were set to payback approximately the same amount. He pointed out that not all manufacturers offer the exact same percentages in their computer chips so there could be a difference of as high as 1% but youreally won't find a situation where the one-quarter machine that's set to return 92% would be sitting next to another quarter machine set to return 82%.

If you look at the numbers from the Nevada Gaming Control Board regarding the returns on slot machines that are shown in this book it certainly corroborates what Rich was saying. After all, ifthe average $1 machine returns 95% how much of a difference could there be between the high and the low? Do you think half of the $1 machines are set at 99% and the other half are set at 91% inorder to get that 95% average? Sorry, but it just doesn't work that way. Yes, there are differences among machines but, once again, the amount is minimal and it probably amounts to no more than1%.

And what about the common belief that machines at the end of an aisle are set to return the most? Well, Rich killed that idea too. He explained that it just seems that end machines pay out moreoften simply because they've played more often.

This is somewhat akin to the 'bad player' theory in blackjack. According to this theory, if there's a bad player at the blackjack table who constantly makes poor decisions it will somehowaffect the order of the cards and cause the good players (who make correct playing decisions) to lose more often. The truth is that the bad player really has no effect on the game becausesometimes his decisions will hurt you and sometimes his decisions will help you. The problem is that you only tend to remember the situations where you lost because of his poor play and forgetthe times that you won because of his boneheaded moves.

This same theory can apply to slot machines at the end of an aisle. When you're playing in a casino, or just walking through, you'll only remember the times you saw people winning at machines,not losing. Since the end-of-the-aisle machines get more play, they will, of course, have more winners and people will tend to remember them as the better paying machines.

As far as constantly changing the payback percentages on the chips to make machines 'looser' or 'tighter' Rich pointed out that it's not quite that simple and that changes are rarely madebecause of all the extra work that's involved.

In the July 1998 issue of Las Vegas Advisor this same subject was covered in an interview with three different Las Vegas casino slot managers and two officials from the Nevada GamingControl Board. The Advisor writer discovered that there actually are some slots where the percentages can be changed by flipping a switch, but it only applies to machines that are connectedtogether in a 'bank' where they all share the same centralized chip. The vast majority of the machines in a casino, however, are not capable of this function as they each have their owninternal chip.

The Advisor story also went on to point out that Nevada law requires casinos to do paperwork whenever a chip is changed and it must be completed within 24 hours. Also, the casino must completeadditional accounting paperwork for filing with the state. Evidently, the process is so time-consuming the story concluded that ' no one we talked to even had a secondhand story of aNevada casino that frequently changes chips.'

You're welcome! In an 8/5 game, the jackpot would have to reach 37,704 coins to reach 100%, assuming you have to play 20 coins to win it. Assuming only 8 coins, the meter would have to reach 15,082 coins. On a 7/5 machine and 20 coins required the meter would have to reach, 46,956 coins. These figures assume you are playing the proper strategy for these pay tables with a per coin payoff for a royal flush of 800. As the jackpot grows some strategy adjustments are called for to more aggressively try for the royal. These adjustments were not calculated in this answer. It doesn't make any difference what the coinage is.

Each frame in these video slots is weighted equally. Any given line is equally likely to produce any given combination. Thus, the return is the same regardless of the number of coins played.

Thanks for the kind words. I have barely heard of teams of slot players doing this. However, this is very common with progressive video poker players. There are teams of these professional players who routinely check the meters and when they find one high enough they call their teammates in an attempt to monopolize the machines until somebody hits the jackpot.
The problem with slots is that it is not clear to the player what the odds are of hitting the jackpot so it is not obvious what the jackpot size has to reach for the machine to become profitable. Plus, it probably rarely happens that a meter gets high enough to overcome the house edge.

If the odds against something are 4 to 1 then there are 4 chances it won't happen and one chance that it will. So, in this example, the probability would be 1/5. It doesn't matter what the probability is, if the events are independent then the past does not matter.

None of these factors matter. Walk away when you're not having fun any longer.

For variable-state slots, you have to know what the positive point is for that model of machine. For example, on the Piggy Bankin' slot machine, I think it becomes positive when there are about 40 credits in the bank. At that point the player is supposed to play one coin at a time until the bank is hit. The book Robbing the One-Armed Bandits by Charles Lund (1999) covers specific positive points for various machines, however many of the machines covered in that book are now hard to find.
As for how to determine when a progressive jackpot is unusually high, you'll either have to observe it over a long period of time or find someone who has done the same. For example, SlotCharts.com keeps data on progressive slots at online casinos. But even when a progressive slot is unusually high, it's impossible to know at what point it becomes high enough to be a positive-expectation game without knowing how the probabilities on the machine are programmed. In my section Deconstructing Megabucks I attempt to figure out when the jackpot is large enough to have a player advantage.
Update: Since this question was published, SlotCharts.com is blocked to U.S. traffic.

Thanks. This is a good question and I wish I had a firm answer. The exact answer depends on the theoretical return of both machines, and nobody ever reveals this information. Yes, you do get a better return in general on dollar machines than quarters, but you are giving up the max-coin bonus. I think the house edge will do down about 2% making the jump from quarters to dollars. However, without reel weightings, I can't tell you the cost of not playing max coins. My general advice is to find a slot machine without a max-coin incentive and then bet one coin at a time.

You're right, the mathematical answer is that it doesn't matter. I would choose the machine either randomly or based on environmental factors. My highest priority is that if there were any smokers in the vicinity I would sit as far from them as possible. Otherwise I would distance myself from any loud noises, including other players. If the machines were crowded I would pick an aisle machine, giving me a little more elbow room and one less neighbor.

I believe that most online slots have a fixed return, regardless of the coinage. This is unlike slots in real casinos, which return more the greater the coinage. What you should do depends on your priorities. If you want playing longevity then you should play as little as possible per spin. If you want hope for a big win then you should play as much as possible per spin. However the house edge is likely the same either way.

No. If your goal is a small win then you should be playing low volatility, high hit frequency games. I can't suggest any particular games but look for ones with comparatively small jackpots. These will also help you to play longer.

I've been asked about these North Carolina slot machines so many times I'm tempted to fly there just to see them for myself. Yes, if they did give the probability of each symbol for each reel then an optimal strategy and a return could be fairly easily calculated. However I have never actually seen such a table and have never worked out the odds.

The odds are exactly the same on a one line, 10 line, and n-line video poker machine. When you get a trash hand in 100-play you can expect to get about 36% of your original bet back. In 10-play it is still 36% but there is more volatility. In 1 play it is still 36% but you can get lucky and get a high paying hand on the draw. In other words you are more likely to hit it big on the draw in single play, but at the expense of lots more non-paying hands.

For purposes of determining the game outcome the slot machine does not consider how many lines you bet or how much per line. The only thing that matters is the exact nanosecond you pressed the spin button. Random numbers drawn at exactly that time will determine the outcome, since the machine is picking numbers even when you're not playing.

1st place: $1,000,000
2nd place: $150,000
3rd-6th place: $25,000
7th-8th place: $20,000
9th-50th place: $5,000

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The cost is $25,000, and the tournament is limited to 50 players. It is easy to see the expected win is $30,000. However, it is a huge long-shot. What would be the required bankroll for entry to be a sound bet under the Kelly Criterion?

The Kelly Approximation is the advantage divided by the variance. The possible outcomes are a win of 39, 5, 0, -0.2, and -0.8 times the bet amount. The advantage is (1/50)×39 + (1/50)×5 + (4/50)×0 + (2/50)× -0.2 + (42/50)×-0.8 = 0.2.

The variance is Expected(win²) - (Expected(win))² = (1/50)×39² + (1/50)×5² + (4/50)×0² + (2/50)× -0.2² + (42/50)×-0.8² − 0.2² = 31.4192

So, the approximate optimal Kelly bet is 0.2/31.492 = 0.0063655 times the bankroll. For a full entry of $25,000, the required bankroll would have to be 25,000/0.0063655 = $3,927,400.

However, for large bets like this, I think it is worth the time to find the exact optimal Kelly bet. Next, find the bet size b, which maximizes the expected log of the bankroll after the tournament, as follows.

Log of bankroll after tournament = (1/50)*log(1+39×b) + (1/50)*log(1+5×b) + (4/50)*log(1) + (2/50)*log(1-0.2×b) + (42/50)*log(1-0.8×b)

There is no easy way to solve for b. Personally, I recommend the 'Goal Seek' feature in Excel. The answer will come out to 0.0083418. So, the exact Kelly bet should be 0.0083418 times your bankroll. To justify the $25,000 entry fee, your bankroll should be $25,000/0.0083418 = $2,996,937.

Do Slot Machines Pay Better On Certain Days Get

1. Does this take into account the unknown house edge on the slot machines?

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2. What would be the playing strategy for the best overall return? Could you just sit back and not gamble, and hope that the other 49 players all end up behind, while you break even and take the grand prize of $1,000,000?

Do Slot Machines Pay Better On Certain Days

Slot tournaments are always held on dedicated tournament machines. Usually these machines don't accept bets, so your balance will either stay even or go up, after each play. So it doesn't make any difference what the return is; the more you play, the more you can expect your balance to go up. Even if you had to play conventional slot machines, I would still bet as fast as possible, stopping only if I got a jackpot large enough to likely win the tournament. The reason is that it is very unlikely that 49 out of 49 players would be negative.

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Interestingly, there was once a slot tournament at Caesars Palace where they gave a prize to the person who finished last. However, they didn't announce this rule until the award ceremony. If you somehow knew of such a rule, indeed, it might be best to not bet.

I would play once on a $5 three-reel single-line game. Win or lose, walk away after one spin.